Russian withdrawal from Syria: the right to doubt

The presumed partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria casts another shadow of doubt over Putin's true intentions. The air forces could be back on one day's notice, given that Russia kept airbase personnel in Latakia and in the refuelling station near Tartus. Russian missiles are still there to control Syria's sky and the Islamic State – whose defeat is the official aim of the Russian presence in Syrian territory - is still deeply entrenched.

In parallel, the decision to pull back coincides with the start of international talks about Syria's future in Geneva and the approaching kick-off of EU talks about sanctions on Russia.

All this suggests that Russia is probably not done with the war in Syria yet.

Similarities between Russian behaviour in Crimea and in Syria

To use Stephen's King words - the trust of the innocent is the liar's most useful tool. Putin has an impressive record of public statements that do not align with Russia’s actions. What is being said by the Kremlin and what is being done are two different things. Eastern Ukraine and Crimea are obvious examples.

Putin has an impressive record of public statements that do not align with Russia’s actions. What is being said by the Kremlin and what is being done are two different things.

There were plenty of pullback announcements ahead of both Minsk negotiations. But each time the ceasefire appeared to hold only briefly and Russian weapons and manpower continued to flow once the agreements were reached.

The Russian involvement in the annexation of Crimea was vividly denied for months until the Russian President himself dismissed any doubts in a propaganda film broadcast to commemorate the 1st anniversary of the annexation of Crimea.

Let us not fall into the Minsk trap on Syrian soil

It is difficult not to see the similarities with Syria: Russia can easily resume strikes and it can keep supporting the Syrian military and Assad’s regime and allies with Russian weapons and cash. Let us not fall into the Minsk trap on Syrian soil.

Russia’s motivation to withdraw from Syria

Russia's motivations when it entered Syria were quickly guessed by international experts. The first was to support the weakened regime of Syrian President, old friend Bashar Assad, and to extend and consolidate Russia's presence in Syria, in its military, air and maritime bases. The second was to re-establish Russia as an important actor in the Middle East and Mediterranean. The third was to be able to instrumentalise war to impact oil prices and refugee flows. The fourth was to gain leverage over the EU and the US to relieve Western pressure over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and potentially to trade concessions in Syria for the relaxation of the West's stance on Ukraine.

The supposed Russian withdrawal can serve their lobbying for the relaxation of Ukraine-related sanctions. As in the case of Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying to gain momentum before the crucial decisions are taken.

After having achieved its first objective, Russia can now allow itself to lower the intensity of its air strikes and military presence, to reduce the economic burden - some 3 million dollars a day - it entails. The pullback might also be an attempt to cast the Russians as constructive partners in international talks. Finally, the supposed Russian withdrawal can serve their lobbying for the relaxation of Ukraine-related sanctions. As in the case of Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying to gain momentum before the crucial decisions are taken.

No softening of EU sanctions against Russia

In its policy paper on Europe’s answer to the crisis in Ukraine, the EPP Group underlined that, against a backdrop of belligerent and expansionist Russian politics, the EU shouldn't be naïve.

The renewal of the Ukraine-related sanctions should be agreed as long as the Minsk agreements are not fully respected and implemented by Russia

Independently of the outcome of the talks in Geneva, Europe should not be misled and led to use the pretext of the withdrawal to soften its stance in the upcoming talks over the Ukraine-related sanctions. Their renewal, contrary to what was already suggested by some EU Member States, should be agreed as long as the Minsk agreements are not fully respected and implemented by Russia. In the Syrian case, Europe should not be fooled by the liar's wit. We have witnessed so many cases of Russia breaching its word that this time we should reserve our right to doubt.